He Did It

PLEASE WAIT LOADING ,,,,,,,,, That is the takeaway for this weekend.

Decades ago this blessed land's bureaucrats and the research arm of the Liberal Democratic Party established that government finances faced a demographic wall, where the European-style social welfare benefits and United States-levels of taxation would collide with a wave of retirees, necessitating either:

1) mass privatization of government functions

2) reversals in the promises made to the citizens

3) higher taxation

4) potentially hyper-inflationary levels of government indebtedness, or

5) a combination of the above.

The solution the bureaucrats and the LDP proposed was a consumption tax, with an initial target rate of 10%.

It has taken thirty years to walk the walk from realization to realization. At least three prime ministers have had their heads handed to them over the tax, first for the imposition of a nominal 3% tax, then for each step of the march up to 10%.

However, on Friday, with every political instinct and a slug of economic analysis pulling in the opposite direction, Prime Minister Noda Yoshihiko managed to drag an opposition-controlled House of Councillors over the goal line.

The political costs have been enormous. Noda will most likely be rewarded, as he should be, with reelection as party president in September. However, he will preside over a much diminished Democratic Party of Japan, over 60 members of which have decamped in one way or another over the consumption tax. The Cabinet's and the DPJ's opinion polling numbers are in the cellar, with an election looming.

One can hate the raising of the consumption tax...and a lot of folks do, for reasons both intellectually sound and transparently selfish.

However, one cannot, no, one must not deny the bravery and tenacity of the prime minister, who sacrificed political blood and capital his party could not spare. When all the sirens are singing sweet songs about how cheaply the government can borrow money, Noda and his wounded party have sent a signal to the holders of Japan's bonds that the government of this blessed land will make good upon its debts through a willingness to both inflict pain and accept annihilation.

Where It's At At The Asahi

PLEASE WAIT LOADING ,,,,,,,,, It may be just one long "just-so" story...but what a story!

Keio University professor Oguma Eiji offers The Asahi Shimbun's English-language AJW a rollicking, wide-ranging take on what's going on (Hurry up and copy, before link rot sets in).

Yes, Oguma's old university home page was way cooler.

Hashimoto Toru's Infidelity Revealed

PLEASE WAIT LOADING ,,,,,,,,, On July 18, Shukan Bunshun printed a full-documented article (an oddity, for the publication) revealing the existence of sexual relationship between Osaka mayor Hashimoto Toru and a bar hostess since 2006. Unfortunately for Hashimoto, he had married his longtime live-in girlfriend Noriko in 1995, making his sexual relationship with the bar hostess an illicit affair.

Now Hashimoto's ability to escape damage to his image from the revelation of the affair could be helped if his marriage could be categorized as, to put it delicately, unfulfilling. However, in between 1997 and 2007, Noriko gave birth to 7 children -- which, given suppressed fertility during lactation, is evidence of nearly uninterrupted "good relations" from 1996 to 2006.

To those who would dismiss the matter, noting that many other politicians have had affairs exposed with little effect on their careers, I would offer the proposition that times have changed. True, Hashimoto has claimed to be a poor father, if not poor at fathering -- though he perversely won a "Best Father" award in 2006 -- the year he began his affair with the hostess. Hashimoto's his most famous quote on his parenting skills is: "Without my wife present, my limit of my being with the kids is about 30 minutes."

His rubbishing of his fathering skills (which his wife has echoed, saying, "What could I possibly have to tell you about his childrearing?") is one thing, abandoning his pregnant wife for a fling with a bar hostess will hurt him and his Ishin no kai with women voters, who make up at least half of his and his organization's supporters.

In general, hypocrisy does not wear well on lawyers, particularly ones who have made a career out of calling out others for their hypocrisy and stupidity.

Hashimoto is in heavy damage control mode, repeating since the publication of the story that he has caused his wife and family distress (J). Yesterday at a press availability he told reporters 15 times "This is an internal matter of the family" -- which means, of course, that it is not. (J)

How serious does Hashimoto think this story affects his public image? One measure is the extent to which he has clammed up since the Shukan Bunshun article has appeared.

Let us check out his Twitter feed, to be found at http://twitter.com/t_ishin/

July 8 - 97 tweets (!!!)
July 9 - 25 tweets
July 10 - 16 tweets
July 11 - 39 tweets (25 seem to be misdated July 12)
July 12 - 35 tweets
July 13 - 24 tweets
July 14 - 24 tweets
July 15 - 30 tweets
July 16 - 8 tweets
July 17 - 4 tweets
July 18 - 0 tweets
July 19 - 0 tweets

When Japan's most opinionated and possibly arrogant self-made man shuts up, he is telling you something: that he at least thinks himself in the deep bat guano.


Later - The Japan Times article on the scandal revisits Yamamoto Mona's affair with the married Hosono Goshi (E). The scandal did nothing to dent Hosono's standing within the Democratic Party of Japan. Hosono is indeed now the serving Minister of the Environment and the Cabinet's point man on the Fukushima nuclear accident.

Hosono's being able to shrug off the affair was aided by the popular depictions of Yamamoto, at the time a TV news reader and single, as having been the aggressor in the relationship.

The BOJ's Holding The Line And Why Diet Members Do Not Like It

PLEASE WAIT LOADING ,,,,,,,,, Someone has finally printed an article in English which defends the Bank of Japan's independence and policies. Predictably, the responsible publication is the Financial Times (E) which as recently as yesterday I was chiding for its tendency to plunge its Japanese interview subjects into hot water.

Amidst all the noise "that the bank should be doing more" it is refreshing to read an article observing that the BOJ is doing all that can be done and still maintain the appellation of "bank." The BOJ is not a berserk ATM responsible for counteracting the incredibly bad fiscal policies of countries around the globe. Since the BOJ cannot succeed in this endeavor it is pointless for the bank to attempt it.

And a cleverly run bank the BOJ is, having posted in fiscal 2011 an unexpected and tidy profit in its bond dealings. (E)

As for reports that Diet members are preparing legislation to rein in the BOJ's independence, regranting the Finance Ministry the powers the MOF lost over the BOJ's policies -- or merely to terrify the BOJ into pre-emptively ceding part of its independence from government interference so as to preserve the larger portion of its independence -- the drafting of legislation is what lawmakers do, whether or not such legislation will have significant effects on the economy's performance or not. (E)

Frankly, noting that legislators are preparing bills with the intention of curbing the BOJ's independence is a little like noting that bonobos have sex. (E)

That legislators would want to be seen as doing something, anything, to arrest deflation is understandable. Deflation, as analyst extraordinaire Naomi Fink recently pointed out, diminishes the willingness of companies to borrow (increasing, as it does, the real interest rate borrowers pay) and hammers the stock markets (by inducing companies to raise funds through the issuance of new equity, diluting the value of the holdings of existing shareholders).

That deflation simultaneously delivers real, nontaxable returns on savings is something legislators possibly do not know, have forgotten or ignore as it has no impact on their being able to hit up corporations into paying for fundraising party tickets or for candidates to win the votes of those who live on the margin and are thus unable to save.

So rather than being about doing something, BOJ bashing seems to be about appearing to be doing something.

Guess Who's Back?

PLEASE WAIT LOADING ,,,,,,,,,

Well this looks like a job for me
So everyone, just follow me
'Cause we need a little...controversy
'Cause it feels so empty without me.

- Eminem, "Without Me" (2002)

Speak of the Devil...and the Devil appears.

Proving that no one ever falls too far in the politics of this blessed land, even after becoming an object of international ridicule, the lead candidate to replaced Ishii Hajime, he of the unfortunate ardor for Philippine vacations, as the chairman of the House of Councillors budget committee, the #2 most influential post in the chamber, is none other than the politician whose name I was using as a pejorative general noun two days ago. (J).

Senator Yanagida, in case you are asked, remember:

"I am humbled by the responsibilities bestowed upon me. Mine is a very hard job...and I will definitely use lots and lots of different phrases while doing it." (E)

The Noda-Ozawa Meeting

PLEASE WAIT LOADING ,,,,,,,,, Tomorrow at this time, Prime Minister Noda Yoshihiko will be meeting with former party leader Ozawa Ichiro. Noda's stated goal going into the meeting is to convince Ozawa to support the government's bills raising the consumption tax from 5% to 10%. Ozawa has publicly stated that he is not inclined to support the tax. (E).

So is the meeting a preamble to a breakup of the Democratic Party of Japan over a point of principle? Or it red meat thrown to sate the voracious news media monster? A song-and-dance show put on by the two men in order to confuse the opposition Liberal Democratic Party and the New Komeito?

That I should ask these rhetorical questions telegraphs my feelings that this is a charade.

Why feel that this is a meeting with a predetermined outcome, one of Ozawa tossing the decision to vote for or against the bill to his followers to decide on their own?

- Ozawa is meeting Noda at DPJ headquarters. As a general rule, Ozawa meets with no one -- though the weeklies have Ozawa "going to Hachioji" with some regularity -- unless there are votes as the door prize (remember his pilgrimage to Koya-san?).

Ostensibly, DPJ headquarters is a neutral venue for the meeting. After all both men are DPJ members. However, as Noda is the DPJ's leader, party headquarters is his house: he is the master of it. For Ozawa to show up at headquarters makes it clear who is calling upon whom.

- Noda has stated there will be only one meeting, or as he colorfully put it, "I will explain that my intent is for this to be a single meeting on this one issue, a single last throw of the dice for everything (kenkon itteki)." (J)

Such brinkmanship is not Noda's style. The PM is something of an anaconda. He wraps his coils around you, waiting patiently, tightening his grip each time you inhale, until you asphyxiate.

If he is saying, "This is it. My way or the highway," in advance of a conference with the kingmaker who supposedly enjoys the loyalty of 1/4 of the DPJ's Diet delegation, then the likelihood that the two are going to have a serious debate with an outcome still in doubt is pretty close to zero.

- The DPJ has already had its internal debate on the bills raising the consumption tax. Ozawa's side lost that debate.

Noda will not throw a defeated man a lifeline.

- Cultivating the image of the DPJ as hopelessly divided has its uses. In addition to keeping journalists busy chasing after wild geese, it confuses the heck out of the opposition.

It would be unwise to head into a general election with the party's image being that of a house divided. However, due to the effective current constitutional ban on elections, the leadership of the DPJ has the freedom to play this purported deep split for at least a little while longer.

- Ozawa is in the Hotel California of Japanese jurisprudence ("You can check out any time you like/But you can never leave"). On May 9, the private lawyers prosecuting Ozawa on violation of the political funds act appealed his April 26 acquittal. The appeals process is normally relatively speedy, with the higher court judge having a strong incentive to affirm the judgment of the lower court. However, in the Ozawa case, the presiding judge's presentation cast doubt upon the veracity of Ozawa's testimony -- and by extension his determination of Ozawa's innocence. This opens the door for the appeals judges to reverse the verdict.

In any case, Ozawa will be stuck in an indicted state for a goodly while -- which makes it highly unlikely he and his flock will leave the DPJ. With their champion hobbled, the Ozawa loyalists have almost zero chance of surviving as an independent political force.

So though his loyalists and hangers-on attend Ozawa's seminars and he their fundraising parties, he is not going anywhere, party-wise.

The question for the political commentariat after tomorrow should not be "Whither Ozawa?" but how many of Ozawa's followers will abstain from the votes on the consumption tax bills, considering the light punishments the party meted out to the first-termers who absented themselves from vote on the no confidence measure against Kan Naoto's Cabinet.

That Pinoy Magic

PLEASE WAIT LOADING ,,,,,,,,, Last week, the Democratic Party of Japan's fluent English speaking, Stanford MA-holding, Adjunct Professor at Shanghai University House of Councillors member Ishii Hajime had to resign his post as chairman of the Budget Committee, the most powerful post in the House of Councillors after President. Ishii had to tender his resignation after having violated the House rule requiring members to alert the chamber if he or she intends to be outside the country for more than 8 consecutive days. Ishii failed to do this prior to paying a visit to the Philippines from April 27 to May 7.

Ishii had originally planned to be in the Philippines on a vacation lasting from May 3 to May 6. However, Ishii, the president of the Japan-Philippines Friendship League, received an invitation to a party on the 27th, so he pushed forward his departure to that date.

Why is this news, aside from the DPJ and Ishii losing face and the opening up in mid-Diet session of a scramble for the incredibly important position Ishii held? Because this resignation marks the second time in a year that Ishii has had to resign an important position because of a May vacation in the Philippines. Last year, when he was the Deputy Chairman of the DPJ Committee on Measures Regarding Earthquakes, he used the Golden Week break to go on a golf vacation in the Republika ng Pilipinas -- when he really should have spent the time visiting somewhere else (Need it be said where that somewhere is?)...or at least staying home. (J)

Once is misfortune; twice looks like carelessness...


Later - On the positive side, Ishii will now be available for interviews and questions from the foreign press, one of his former major roles inside the DPJ.

Just do not mention the p-word.

The Masked Man Returns

PLEASE WAIT LOADING ,,,,,,,,, For those defenders and friends of Ozawa Ichiro -- and I know you are out there -- will you please tell him, beg him if you have to, to reconsider the wearing of a surgical mask on days when he is hot water?

Ozawa Ichiro, leaving his home on May 9, 2012.

I know that this all could be coincidence. After all, the above photo was taken at around noon and the press conference announcing the appeal of his case was not until the afternoon.

However, the instances of Ozawa's sudden comings down with colds at awkward moments have been painful to observe.

As for the prosecuting private attorneys, if they really wish anyone to believe that they are under no political pressure at all to appeal the not-guilty verdict of April 26, then sweating rivulets during their press conference on a mild May day is not the way to do it. While cool cucumber Yamamoto Ken'ichi (J - far right) managed not even a glow, Omuro Shinzo and Muramoto Michio were spurting like the fountains of Trevi.


Later - To be fair, Ozawa's lawyers were sweating even worse than the prosecuting attorneys.

Ozawa Ichiro As Potential Troublemaker

PLEASE WAIT LOADING ,,,,,,,,, [Flash - the three lawyers who failed to win a conviction of Ozawa Ichiro with violations of the Political Funds Control Act have decided to appeal the not guilty verdict (J).

It is not too surprising a decision. The trio have an incentive to prove that they were not the fools losing the case made them out to be. They surely received an extra jolt of energy from the trial judge's statements casting doubts on parts of Ozawa's testimony. While the judge's asides did not find Ozawa, as Ishihara Nobuteru put it yesterday, "99% jet black" (J) they did not allow Ozawa to proclaim hiself pure as the driven snow either.

Later - Guessing as to whether or not the prosecuting lawyers have sought to humiliate the Democratic Party of Japan by announcing their decision to retry Ozawa after the DPJ executive voted to reinstate his party privileges is something the reader should not take two seconds to ponder over. Of course, they did. Such abusive behavior is in line with the conduct of this trial and the trials against Ozawa's secretaries, which from the outset have been politics by the most thuggish of means.]

Now, where was I?

I am on the record as believing Ozawa Ichiro faces constraints on his behavior preventing him from becoming the ogre the mainstream and scandal press predict he will be, now that his shackles are being loosed. (E)

However, my assertions have been predicated on Ozawa's understanding that the Democratic Party of Japan is different from the Liberal Democratic Party. Underpinning such a vision is a belief that after winning the control of the Diet through emulating the pork-barrel promises that made the LDP such an unshakable part of the post-Occupation reality, the DPJ would then shift gears and return the decentralized authority, anti-subsidy, anti-protectionist, anti-pork barrel program that made the pary the darlings of the urban white collar consumer vote.

Intrinsic to such vision was a completely overhaul the disenfranchising House of Representatives single-member districts system. At present, 91 of the single-member districts have population greater than twice the population of the smallest district, Kochi #3. The disparity shook even the somnolent Supreme Court to rule last year that the current system is unconstitutional, violating the right of all citizens to equal protection of the law.

However, when Ozawa effectively came to power through the puppet regime of Prime Minister Hatoyama Yukio, revising the electoral system was not the first item on his agenda -- which it should have been if the DPJ were to have any chance at retaining power in the next House of Representatives election. Instead, what Ozawa did, to the horror of many in the media, was to order all of the first-termers, many of whom had specialist knowledge and had entered politics in order to affect and implement policy, out of the government positions to which Prime Minister Hatoyama had appointed (nakedly and brazenly showing who was calling the shots inside the DPJ). Instead, he ordered those stripped of their government positions and all other first-termers to forget policy and concentrate instead on politicking inside their home districts -- which, when you think about it, only makes sense if the borders of the districts were not set to change.

It is true that at the time Ozawa was not under the gun of the Supreme Court, which was not to deliver its ruling for another year, long after Ozawa had been toppled from power over the Futenma climb-down and the revolt of the middle-ranking lifers of the DPJ. However, numerous lower-ranking decisions had found the existing House of Representatives districts unconstitutional. Also, while the DPJ had won control of the House of Representatives with a mixture of disgust for the LDP and borrowing some of the LDP's vote-buying strategies (an Ozawa innovation that transformed the DPJ from a losing urban-surburban party to a winning national party) -- it was clear that the DPJ could not pull those same two rabbits out the hat twice.

For the DPJ, the choice was either reform the system or die.

So as Ozawa is given his freedom, the question is whether during his time in suspension, did he learn what it means to be a member of the DPJ? Or has he remained adamant in his thinking that the way to run Japan is to accept the country as it is and work around the margins, even though that approach has brought him grief time and time again, whether it was in the LDP, the New Frontier Party, the Liberal Party and his time as the power behind Hatoyama's throne?

In terms of policy, the signs are not encouraging. His opposition to the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which, given the disparate interests of its negotiating members, may just as well end up crashing of its own accord, reveals an unfortunate attachment to the rural vote as it is currently super-empowered.

Ozawa's unwillingness to play ball with the current party leadership over the imposition of a rise in the consumption tax, which is represents a tough, and yes, contractionary solution to a debt mountain not of the DPJ's making, paints a picture of him as a factional bully, throwing around the weight of the 100 or so members of the DPJ beholden to him, rather than as a party man.

Ozawa's defenders insist that whatever the methods employed, Ozawa's primary interest has been the seizing of policy from the bureaucracy and making it answerable to the voters. To be sure, on the surface, the government of Noda Yoshihiko seems to have relinquished whatever gains not only his party made but much of what the LDP's Koizumi Jun'ichiro wrenched from out of the hands of the bureaucrats. For this reason, an unleashed Ozawa immediately challenging the legitimacy of the current leadership group is not only inevitable but salutatory.

It would be a grave mistake, however, for Ozawa to take on the leadership of DPJ. He must meet with Noda, one-to-one, and see what Noda's real goals and strategies are.

I do not refer to Noda as The Impenetrable One out of laziness. Noda is almost perversely parsimonious with his actual thinking on any given issue, no matter how beautifully he may talk about every issue. You can read Noda's words in the newspaper or on the Web, or hearing speaking him out loud on television or in person. However, as to what he thinks, one draws a blank. He may have a silver tongue but he does not appear to be speaking his mind.

Does Ozawa have the humility to go to the Kantei for a meeting of minds? The outlook is admittedly not promising.


Note - this post has been edited for greater clarity and precision.

The Emperor After The Fall

PLEASE WAIT LOADING ,,,,,,,,, Today is The Big Day -- when the judge in the Ozawa Ichiro trial on violations of the Public Funds Control Law Political Funds Control Act hands down his verdict and if Ozawa is found guilty, his sentence. The news is full of analysis of the meaning of the Ozawa verdict, including these two pieces by Toko Sekiguchi (E) and Aurelia George Mulgan (E).

I hate to be the grump in any instance -- but the verdict today is largely irrelevant. As Sekiguchi points out in her piece, Ozawa will appeal if he is found guilty. If he is found not guilty, the Association of Those Seeking the Truth (Shinjitsu o Motomeru Kai) will have failed in its quest to milk the arrest of Okubo Takanori for some evidence to put Ozawa away. Given that the members of this group, whoever they are, all seem to be in retirement and thus with plenty of time on their hands to cause mischief (the Devil makes work for idle hands, after all), it is likely the Association will just find another blind alley to send prosecutors running down.

(An aside: the slavering anti-Ozawa weekly Shukan Bunshun decided that yesterday, the eve of the verdict, was the perfect day to release an exclusive story about a heretofore unknown child Ozawa fathered out of wedlock. Classy rag, that Shukan Bunshun.)

Whatever the purported goals of the cases against Ozawa and his aides, the political purpose has been served. The arrest of Okubo forced Ozawa to resign as head of the Democratic Party of Japan on the eve of the election that was to push the Liberal Democratic Party off its perch and install a DPJ-led coalition government. The resignation as party leader prevented Ozawa becoming prime minister. While Ozawa was able to engineer the election of his ally-puppet Hatoyama Yukio as his replacement, with Ozawa taking the role of effective party leader through the post of DPJ Secretary-General, Ozawa was denied the prize which he had long desired and had long labored to seize. As for the arrests of former aides Ishikawa Tomohiro and Ikeda Mitsutomo, on the basis of evidence of violations of the Public Funds Control Law found by the prosecutors after a proctological search through the documents seized in relation to Okubo's arrest, these weakened Ozawa's position in the party, making it possible for middle-level legislators to challenge his stranglehold on party policy making.

Ozawa's indictment on January 31, 2011 (E) gave the anti-Ozawa members of the DPJ, including prime minister Kan Naoto, the leverage needed to force party secretary-general Koshi'ishi Azuma, an Ozawa ally, to suspend Ozawa's party privileges.

Stripped of all formal party positions and even access to party funds for his own reelection. Ozawa had to exercise influence indirectly through the first-term and second-term legislators in Houses of Representatives and the House of Councillors whom he had hand-picked as candidates, and through the largely second- and third-grade legislators who had followed him through party after party. These nominal disciples number about 150 legislators, a third of the DPJ's membership in the Diet.

However, without his hands on the money spigots of the party, particularly the public financing provided to finance elections, Ozawa has had to rely on the bonds of affection, loyalty and his own funding apparatus to keep his allies faithful. This bond has weakened, however, as Ozawa's time in internal exile has dragged on. On issues of policy, such as opposition to the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the rise in the consumption tax, he has had to ally himself with other disaffected elements of the party, such as Mr. No To Everything Yamada Masahiko. He also found himself, in June 2011, on the verge joining hands with the LDP, the party he had worked so hard to unseat and dismantle, in a vote of no-confidence against Prime Minister Kan. Only a last-minute and ultimately empty face-saving compromise worked out by the feckless Hatoyama prevented Ozawa from fulfilling the media's negative portrayal of  him as a selfish destroyer of parties and governments.

Even this indirect influence over party policy making has evaporated, however. In a show of principle and utter political naïveté, Ozawa's allies in the DPJ dragged out the party debate over the legislation raising the consumption tax from a projected 3 days to 3 weeks. Exasperated, Prime Minister Noda Yoshihiko cut off debate, giving the final decision on the legislation to Policy Research Chairman Maeda Maehara Seiji -- an outcome that effectively negated the entire three weeks of debate. In response, four of Ozawa's acolytes in government positions and 30 in party positions resigned their posts. Eager to preserve party unity, the party leadership refused to accept the resignations, giving the legislators and Ozawa a chance to reconsider their actions. After six days of waiting, the government accepted the resignations of the government appointees on April 5 (E). It still left the door open, though, for those who had resigned party posts.

The party, however, very quietly shut that final door on Monday (J,) accepting resignations of the Ozawa allies who had resigned their party posts.

So as the political commentariat and twitterati await the verdict with bated breath, the political impact of the outcome is less significant than political observers will admit. Ozawa is now more shadow than shadow shogun. The current leadership group, knowing his tendencies, will not permit his appointment to any position of power. He will not be allowed near the party's pot of political funds. His followers have abandoned the positions they could have used to influence or if necessary gum up policy making.

Ozawa has been the most influential, hated and fascinating politician of the last 30 years. However, whatever happens today will not shake the political world to its roots. Its branches may shiver a bit -- but that is all.

 Later - My apologies for the HTML failures that led to half the original text being swallowed up into the ether.

Still later - Many thanks to alert readers O.J. and M.P. for catching the errors.

Hypocrisy Watch: Ozawa Ichiro

PLEASE WAIT LOADING ,,,,,,,,, Appearing Thursday on a Web-based interview program (because he does not do mainstream media, with all their annoying "questions") former Democratic Party of Japan leader, former party Secretary-General (under the pathetic Hatoyama Cabinet) and incorrigible schemer Ozawa Ichiro told his audience the following:

"Neither the Liberal Democratic Party, neither the DPJ, neither the Your Party and the Osaka Ishin no kai will be able to seize a majority [of seats in the House of Representatives if there is an election]. Since instability in politics will lead to the unhappiness of Japan, I would like to avoid this situation." (J)

Aaaaaarrrrrggggghhhhh! Oh, oh, my brain hurts!

Ozawa Ichiro wants to avoid instability in Japanese politics. Ozawa Ichiro!

Up is Down. Left is Right. Freedom is Slavery. Ignorance is Strength!

OK, let us forget, for a moment, the last 19 years. Let us just concentrate on this month, where Ozawa Ichiro has:

- led the first meeting of an anti-consumption tax rise study group, attended by 101 members of the Diet. (12.02.09 - the same day he made the above statement - J)

- done nothing to discourage (i.e. - encouraged) Hirono Tadashi, a member of Ozawa's support group, to resign as the director of the DPJ's public affairs unit. Hirono's reason for quitting: he cannot countenance the Noda cabinet's plans to offer legislation raising the consumption tax. (12.02.09 - the same day as Ozawa made the above statement - J)

- invited Aichi Governor Omura Takeaki, who is trying to establish a regional anti-tax party based in the prefectures surrounding Nagoya, to speak at the Ozawa Juku, Ozawa's annual convention for training politicians. Omura will be speaking to the trainees, most of whom are members of the Diet loyal to Ozawa, on February 11. (12.02.07 - J)

- met with former Prime Minister Hatoyama Yukio to form a united front against the Noda government's plans to raise the consumption tax. When asked whether his actions were not in tune with the party's policies, Ozawa replied, "Which is the canary that has forgotten his song?" (12.02.03 - J)

Granted, Ozawa's anti-Noda Cabinet activities can be said to be grounded in principle. He thinks it daft to impose a rise in the consumption tax during a period of deflation -- which is sound in economic, if not in governance, terms (even in good economic times, no Japanese prime minister since Hashimoto Ryutaro has had the intestinal fortitude to raise the consumption tax -- despite all projections showing a rise was necessary to cover increasing social welfare costs associated with the aging of Japan's population). Ozawa's stance is also smart politics, for he predicts, with historical precedent and common sense as his guides, that raising the consumption tax will lead to a DPJ wipeout in the next elections. (J)

For Ozawa to claim, however, that his in-your-face anti-consumption tax activities do not make him a opponent of the DPJ leadership is disingenuous, nay, mendacious.