Slackjawed With Amazement at the Kurokawa Report

PLEASE WAIT LOADING ,,,,,,,,, For me to list all the non-sequiturs, self-contradictory passages, half-truths, prevarications ("It is possible that..."), unsupported accusations, self-evident statements presented as revelations (Prime Minister Kan Naoto's visit to the plant "diverted the attention and time of the on-site operational staff." Oh cut the crap: the presence of a wasp in the control room would have had the same effect) and the reticence to assign blame in the final report of the National Diet of Japan Fukushima Nuclear Accident Independent Commission (Kokkai Tokyo Denryoku Fukushima Genshiryokuhatsudenjo jiko chousa iinkai), I would be typing all day, all night -- for weeks.

It is really that bad.

If the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission or the International Atomic Energy Commission had any sense, they would immediately hire a team of Japan scholars to tear this [unfortunate choice of words removed - Ed.] apart, and form special investigative commissions of their own to compare and contrast all the official reports produced so far.

The download page of the Kurokawa Commission report crashed a little after 9 pm last night (and is still down at the time of the publication of this post), preventing access to the most important versions of the documents. The reports themselves, when one could access them, were presented in impossible to copy-and-paste formats and in a maze of links and pages, indicating how little the powers-that-be have wanted the world and/or the citizens of Japan to take look at the Commission's findings and come to their own conclusions.

That the English language version of the report has the commission president blaming Japanese culture for contributing the disaster, whilst the Japanese language version omits this little chestnut, is simply so revolting an appeal to international stereotypes regarding the people of this blessed land that my morning coffee today tastes like sewer water -- and Amaterasu knows I love my coffee.

Later - This post has been edited to remove non-worksafe language.

Fukushima Dai'ichi - The Greater Truth Or The Big Lie?

PLEASE WAIT LOADING ,,,,,,,,, As one with a deep and considered faith that former prime minister Kan Naoto led this blessed land through its darkest days of the postwar era with a proper mix of grit, effort and screaming at idiots and liars, Thurday promises to be a very important day:

THE NATIONAL DIET OF JAPAN FUKUSHIMA NUCLEAR ACCIDENT

INDEPENDENT INVESTIGATION COMMISSION

TO RELEASE REPORT ON FUKUSHIMA NUCLEAR ACCIDENT

On July 5, Chairman Kiyoshi Kurokawa of The National Diet of Japan Fukushima Nuclear Accident Independent Investigation Commission (NAIIC) will deliver its final report to Mr. Takahiro Yokomichi, Speaker of the House of Representatives, and Mr. Kenji Hirata, President of the House of Councillors

The long-awaited report comes at the end of a six-month investigation into the nuclear accident of March 11, 2011

The Commission, the first of its kind in the history of Japan’s constitutional government, received its mandate from the National Diet to investigate the causes of the accident, the causes of the subsequent damage and the effectiveness of the emergency response.

The Commission was also charged with investigating Japan’s nuclear policies and regulations and to offer recommendations to prevent a similar occurrence.

The Commission held over 900 hours of hearings and interviews with over 1100 people. It was able to use the powers of the legislative body to obtain necessary documents and evidence

The Commission acted on behalf of the Japanese people—independent from any elected member of either House of the Diet, from the restrictions of the government bureaucracy, and from the financial influence of the nuclear power lobby

SCHEDULE OF EVENTS

July 5, 2012

Date and Time: July 5, 2012, Thursday, 11:00 start

Venue:

Conference Hall (1F) in the House of Councillors Members Office Building
Address: 2-1-1, Nagata-cho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo

-11:00-11:10am

Final Commission Meeting confirming the Report (to be broadcasted online with simultaneous English interpretation

Conference Hall (1st floor) House of Councillors Members’ Office Bldg

Open to the public and the press. Attendees must preregister—registration information is available online

-19:00
Press Conference (to be broadcasted online with simultaneous English interpretation

A presentation by the Chairman and all Members of the Commission will be followed by a Q&A session

Conference Hall (1st floor) House of Councillors Members’ Office Bldg

Open to the press only. Attendees must preregister—registration information is available online.

* An English edition of the Executive Summary will be available in a print version and on the website; an English translation of the entire report will be available for downloading at a later date. Past hearings (including those of former Prime Minister Naoto Kan and current METI minister Yukio Edano) and commission meetings can also be viewed in English on our website.

(Source)

A lot of folks, namely the Liberal Democratic Party, the nuclear village and the mass media outlets that reprinted, uncritically, the slanders of their sources inside Tokyo Electric Power and the national bureaucracy, have a lot riding on the report's railroading Kan, the then Chief Cabinet Secretary Edano Yukio, other members of the Kan Cabinet and the Democratic Party of Japan's political appointees in government. The committee's lead investigator, corporate mischief maker Nomura Shuya, gave a mendacious and manipulative presentation of what might be the commission's findings on June 9 -- a performance that earned Nomura a veiled rebuke from Dr. Kurokawa in the written review of the meeting.

Dr. Kurokawa will be presenting the findings of his commission in a presumably less fraught environment at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS) on Monday, July 9, from from 16:40 to 18:10. Registration for this presentation closes on Friday, July 6. (Link - J)

It is possible that the news media entertainment complex of this blessed land will present the finding of the Comission in a comprehensive, fair and self-critical manner.

Possible, but not likely.

Why Does This Not Shock Me?

PLEASE WAIT LOADING ,,,,,,,,, The Sankei Shimbun, in a bit of title legerdemain, has made it seem as though it has been given an exclusive look inside the Diet commission report on the Tokyo Electric Power's Fukushima Dai'ichi nuclear power plant disaster -- and that the conclusions are damning:

東電の調査報告書案「官邸の介入、無用な混乱助長させた」

"The Draft Tokyo Electric Power Investigation Report: 'The Intervention of the Prime Minister's Office Fomented Needless Confusion'"

Read that headline too quickly and after hearing so much about the Diet-appointed commission investigating the disaster, and you might misassociate the news flash with a leak from the Diet commission draft report.

Only when you read the article do you realize that what Sankei is promoting as an exclusive is a leak from Tokyo Electric Power Company's own internal report that the company is compiling to compete with the Diet commission's report. TEPCO's report find (gasp) that the Kan government's bypassing of TEPCO's information controls interfered with operations at the Fukushima Dai'ichi plant.

(Link)

Why am I not shocked -- at TEPCO's conclusions and the way the Sankei Shimbun has filed this story?

Storage Is Cheap, Information Precious

PLEASE WAIT LOADING ,,,,,,,,, Simplyfy Info has a rundown of the English-language information on the front page story of today's Tokyo Shimbun: that the staff of the Fukushima Prefectural Office, having received emails from the Nuclear Safety Technology Center (NUSTEC - J and E) containing the System for Prediction of Environment Emergency Dose Information (SPEEDI) data predicting the direction and size of the plume of radiation spewing from the crippled Fukushima Dai'ichi nuclear power station, deleted the files unread in order to save server space (Link - E). The report is a follow up to the Yomiuri Shimbun's barely noticed breaking of the story on March 22. (E)

What the Simply Info reports do not mention is that the admission of the mails having been deleted came from Fukushima Prefectural Governor Sato Eisaku in testimony he gave yesterday (May 29) to the Diet's "Tokyo Electric Power Company's Fukushima Power Plant Accident Investigative Committee" (Tokyo denryoku Fukushima genpatsu jiko chosa iinkai). In total, Governor Sato admitted, prefectural staff deleted 65 of 85 emails the prefectural government received from NUSTEC in between March 12 and March 16.

Sure, it is possible the members of the Fukushima emergency teams did not understand the importance of the NUSTEC messages or even know what the hell NUSTEC is. However, the onus of not disseminating the SPEEDI information made available is now mostly, not entirely, on MEXT and the Prime Minister's Office, as we had been led to believe. (E)

Armageddon Can Ruin Your Whole Day

PLEASE WAIT LOADING ,,,,,,,,, The most hilarious line I have read in a long while:

"If Japan's finances collapse, social order would collapse as well. That would be a tough environment to raise children."

You can find it a huffing-and-puffing Reuters piece on a heretofore unknown sweeping social trend: Japanese buying overseas real estate and non-yen currencies in order to have a safe haven to which they will flee prior to Japan's descent into chaos. (Link)

I know that it is in the writ of wire journalists to alert their most important readers (private investors and money managers) as to emerging social trends. That way said readers can get in on the opportunity before everyone else does. It is in the writ of editors, however, to cool the jets of journalists with "Uhhhh, how sure are we that we are not being sucked into someone else's marketing scheme?"

As for the book whose sales supposedly validate the trend of Japanese seeking security oversees, Escape from Japan (Nippon dasshutsu), check out the home page of its publisher, Asa Publishing (Link - J).

Yes, there's the link, that jittery thing on the right.

Ecce Homo

PLEASE WAIT LOADING ,,,,,,,,, Today former prime minister Kan Naoto is appearing before the Diet's "Tokyo Electric Power Company's Fukushima Power Plant Accident Investigative Committee" (Tokyo denryoku Fukushima genpatsu jiko chosa iinkai). Kan's testimony is the culmination of the Committee's investigations, which have seen former minister after former minister summoned to tell his version of what happened during the first few hours, days and weeks of the Fukushima Dai'ichi disaster. Former Chief Cabinet Secretary Edano Yukio had his day before the Committee yesterday (On a Sunday! The Diet is normally like Melina Mercouri -- never on a Sunday!).

Today, however, is the grand finale, the final act, where the biggest fish in the sea is hauled out and interrogated about his actions and decisions in the most hectic and desperate days this blessed land has known since 1945.

The Committee's chairman is Kurokawa Kiyoshi (bio), a Fellow at National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS) and an emeritus professor of Tokyo University. Despite the pointed, possibly highly technical questions it might ask, the Committee is likely to not be the kangaroo court the opposition and members of the news media desire.

Nevertheless, the news media and the opposition will hover like vultures over Kan's testimony, trying to find sentences to misconstrue, quote in isolation and otherwise tease and torture until meaning is drained from them. The colossal politico-media-entertainment squid bought into and promoted a narrative that the PM was an impediment to those who were fighting a panicked and ultimately failed effort to prevent meltdowns, explosions and the release of many terabequerels of radiation. Its members even went so far as to accuse him of initiating cascades of events that worsened the disaster.

So far, the news has accentuated the negative:

Japan refused US offer of nuclear experts in PM office

Edano: PM's office did not block use of 'meltdown'

Japan government spokesman says he didn’t deliberately mislead public on nuclear crisis
(Check out the accompanying photo. Shameless!)

As can be expected, each of the participants has used the occasion of his testimony to exonerate himself (E - photo issue as above). As a consequence, the final report of the Committee is likely to present a braid of different narratives, rather than a definitive chain of causation.

Most desperate to get their version out are the Tokyo Electric Power executives, who were not interviewed for the most recently compiled comprehensive investigation into the Fukushima nuclear disaster, produced by Funabashi Yoiichi's Rebuild Japan Initiative Foundation (Link - J). If anybody has had a story to tell (and I do mean story) it is TEPCO executives, particularly as then president Shimizu Masataka checked himself into a hospital less than two weeks into the crisis. (E)

In the end, the report will disappoint those who want someone to blame. A giant earthquake and a towering tsunami hit a nuclear power station designed to resist the greatest natural blow this blessed land had heretofore experienced, not a black swan event. With the main and backup systems gone, everyone, with the possible exception of the TEPCO executives and the unprepared public information service of the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency, performed heroic ad hoc efforts to bring the nuclear reactors under control and ensure the public's safety.

So while the wire services, the nightly news on the anti-DPJ channels and even the reports the neutral channels, out of a misunderstanding of the concept of fairness, will bore in on the confusion and improvisation in March and early April 2011, and tomorrow's newspapers will echo and elaborate upon tonight's themes, the truth is that individuals like former Prime Minister Kan and plant manager Yoshida Masao, by following their better instincts, led others to do the same, and prevented a disaster from becoming a cataclysm.

Hold up your chin, blessed land, for producing men and women such as these.

In Lotus Land

PLEASE WAIT LOADING ,,,,,,,,, Thank goodness for The Tokyo Diplomat. Without it I would never have been alerted to Tokyo Metropolitan District Governor Ishihara Shintaro's spectacularly weird suggestion that nuclear power plants be built on Nokogiriyama in Chiba Prefecture ("There's a lot of empty land up there," the governor claims), under the reasoning that if the Greater Tokyo Area is the consumer of the power produced by nuclear power plants, it should host a few. (J)

Guys, and Kannon-sama, Ishihara-chiji thinks you need some big time engineering company.

Black-tailed gulls (Umineko - Larus crassirostris) over Nokogiriyama.


Kannon of the Nippon-ji.
Nokogiriyama, Chiba Prefecture.


Jigoku nozoki ("The Glimpse Into Hell").
Nokogiriyama, Chiba Prefecture.


One of the 1,500 Rakkan.
Nokogiriyama, Chiba Prefecture.


The Great Buddha of the Nippon-ji
(carved 1783-6 and until 1984 the largest Buddha figure in Japan).
Nokogiriyama, Chiba Prefecture.


Face of the Great Buddha of the Nippon-ji.
Nokogiriyama, Chiba Prefecture.

All photos: MTC

The X-Y Axes of Stupid: Children and Childcare

PLEASE WAIT LOADING ,,,,,,,,, There days one wonders, "Oh, why fight it? Why not just sit back and be stupid, like seemingly nearly all those in positions of wealth, power and influence?"

Today is one of those days.

In a Children's Day (May 5) bit of thought-provoking whimsy, researchers at Tohoku University posted a Zero Hour time clock (J). Based upon the rate of decline in the number of children in between April of 2011 and April of 2012 -- the researchers provide the URLs of the relevant government populations statistics pages -- the clocks tick off both the number of children in Japan and the number of days until, if the decline in between April 2011 and April 2012 were extended indefinitely, there would be but a single child left in Japan.

The press release on the workings of the time clock (J) by team leader and Graduate School of Economics and Management Professor Yoshida Hiroshi explains that he copied his idea from the famous U.S. debt clock. He also makes clear that the purpose of the clock is to stimulate discussion of 1) what the current state of the decline in the number of children means, and 2) what are the consequences if declines continue in the future.

That the whole exercise is not an academic but a polemic exercise is apparent from the press release. It is a rush job, with typos. For instance, in the paragraph explaining the goals of the clock, the text should say "apiiru" not "piiru." There is no such word as "piiru."

Of course, the writers and editors news organizations would never, ever take this bit of fun and blow it up into an an actual scientific enterprise. Oh no, they would never do that:

3011 to see last child in Japan: population clock
Jiji, Kyodo

SENDAI — Japan will no longer have children under the age of 15 in 999 years, a group of researchers at Tohoku University Graduate School has estimated.

The team, led by professor Hiroshi Yoshida, developed a child population clock that displays an estimated number of children at any moment based on past percentages of decline. The clock was made available on the university's website Thursday.

The team used a 2011-2012 percentage change in the number of children that was released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications on April 1. The number of children aged under 15 fell to 16.6 million in 2012 from 16.9 million in 2011.

The clock calculates the estimated number of children at present and counts down to the last child, based on the assumption that the number of children is expected to continue falling.

Japan's child population drops by one every 100 seconds, according to the clock. As a result, there will be no kids on May 18, 3011...

(Link)

AAAaaaaarggghhhhh!

Of course, this version of the story has gone both viral and mainstream, at least among the publications assuming their readership have sub-bonobo IQ (and if any of readers out there are 100% bonobos, please accept my apologies for associating you with these organizations).

(Search results)

Now this is not to say that the decline of the birthrate has not been one of the social policy areas where the government, both under Liberal Democratic Party and Democratic Party of Japan leadership, has run up against a brick wall. The LDP in the 1990s went on a day care center-building binge that continues to this day -- the green line in Figure 1 of this 2011 Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare report.

[By the way, check out the map on page 9 of the report. It shows that of all the children awaiting placement in day care centers, 31% live in the Tokyo Metropolitan District. Add in Kanagawa Prefecture, and percentage rises to 43%. And nine prefectures have zero children on waiting lists.

Can we please now decently bury the "Japan lacks sufficient childcare for working mothers" canard?]

As for the DPJ, it promised, though it in the end has not been able to deliver, direct financial support to all families with children. The child allowance (kodomo teate) was potentially good social policy, as it certainly would have made it possible for lower and middle income couples to have children earlier and in greater numbers. However, the DPJ simultaneously sold the child allowance as an economic stimulus measure, which was dumb, as families, even though receiving only half of the monthly payments promised, still managed to save half the amount dispensed. Of course, financial planners writing in women's magazines advised readers to put all the child allowance into savings.

[If we are to take Shakespeare as our guide (E), the agenda for the DPJ should have been: "The first thing we do, let's kill all the financial planners."]

Tackling the birth dearth has been of tertiary interest for the DPJ leadership -- which has been expending far more of its political capital on solving the budget and pension gaps through raising the level of taxation or goosing economic growth rather than raising the number of taxpayers. Indeed, the "measures for for the declining birthrate" portfolio has become the hot potato of cabinet jobs. A humiliating nine different ministers have held the portfolio since a DPJ-led coalition took power in September 2009 (J) -- a rate of turnover neared only by the hard right dream portfolio of Minister for the DPRK Abductees Issue (six different ministers since the takeover).

Despite failure of the government to find a game plan for reversing the decline in the birthrate, the Japanese people -- whatever that means in genotype terms -- is not going extinct. The Japanese language might go extinct* -- look at at the state of Manchu one century after the fall of the Qing Dynasty. However, writing about the Japanese people going extinct based on the extrapolation of the rate of decline between April 2011 and April 2012 -- not a particular cheerful and hope-filled year, if one may say so -- that deserves a spanking.

-------------------------------
* Mori Arinori (E) thought it a potentially worthwhile goal -- just one of the brainstorms that got folks angry enough to kill him on the morning of Constitution Day in 1889.

How Can This Be Even Close To True?

PLEASE WAIT LOADING ,,,,,,,,, I will not pretend to have the least knowledge of the mechanics of removal of radionuclides from the environment. However, looking at these government projections of radiation exposure potentials in Fukushima over the next 10 years, I found myself baffled.

For a larger view, click on image.

Are these maps not wildly optimistic? Cesium 134 admittedly has a half-life of two years. Cesium 137, however, has a half-life of 30 years. Strontium-90, which has an affinity for deposition in human bones, has a half-life of 29 years.

The most dramatic illustrations of the radiation levels post-disaster are the government maps we have seen of radioactive dispersal based on aerial surveillance of radiation emissions of deposited cesium 134 and 137. The maps for the deposition of the two isotopes are indeed seperated: See Annex 3 of this government report for Cesium 134 and Annex 4 for Cesium 137 (Link). Both show nearly identical hot areas.

Even given heavy rains as a flushing element, would not the virtually all of the Cesium 137 and Strontium-90 still be in the ground 10 years hence?

Well, yes, but what that means in terms of radiation exposure is another matter.

The significant image is not the radiation fallout map but Figure 2 on page 22 of The Final Report of the International Commision of on the Remediation of Large Contaminated Areas Off-Site the Fukushima Daichi NPP. According to the report, Cesium 134 and 137 were released in equal amounts by the multiple explosions at the Fukushima Dai'ichi nuclear power plants. As Figure 2 shows, due to its shorter half-life, decay of Cesium 134 is currently producing more than 70% of the radiation measured. In 10 years, the level of radiation coming from Cesium 134 decay will be 1/32nd the level of today, meaning that virtually all the measurable radiation will be coming from the decay of Cesium 137. Due to Cesium 137's long half-life, however, the number of decays per hour will be significantly lower than are measured at present. In ten year's time, the number of decays will be 1/5th of the amounts currently measured.

For a larger view, click on image.

So as the maps indicate, large areas that are currently uninhabitable could become habitable, at least in so far as scientists can guess regarding the safety of areas with levels of radionuclides emitting radiation at high doses. To what extent radiation at low doses can be considered acceptable for human habitation, nobody really knows.

Image Courtesy: The Asahi Shimbun Asia & Japan Watch

Calling Jake Adelstein

PLEASE WAIT LOADING ,,,,,,,,, Uh-oh.

Japan firm wants to lease 1 northern island for tsunami debris
Saipan Tribune

A private Japanese firm has offered to lease one of the islands north of Saipan as a disposal and recycling site for tons of debris from the March 2011 tsunami in Japan, Rep. Froilan Tenorio (Cov-Saipan) said yesterday.

Tenorio said officials of the firm will be coming to Saipan next week to meet with Gov. Benigno R. Fitial to discuss the proposal, which could mean millions of dollars of fresh revenues for the CNMI and help Japan in its recovery.

"If the response is good, there's a plan to charter a plane to fly to one of the islands and take a look at it. If the deal is okay, then we'll sign a lease," Tenorio said in an interview after meeting with the governor yesterday afternoon.

Tenorio, a former governor and speaker, pointed out that the tsunami debris from Japan that are planned to be shipped to one of the Northern Islands are "non-toxic" and "non-radioactive" materials...

Yeah, right. I am sure the certificate of guarantee will be printed on genuine "Govemnet of Japan" stationery, too.

This could all be legitimate, of course. Honestly. Truly.

So The Budget Passes. Now What?

PLEASE WAIT LOADING ,,,,,,,,, Since Sunday the government of this blessed land has been operating without a budget, an embarrassing state of affairs which happens from time to time (the last time was 14 years ago). For reasons that escape me for the moment, the Democratic Party of Japan's floor leaders managed to demonstrate an alarming inability to count backwards 30 days from April 1, alarming in that it is both simple to do and also reminiscent of the inability of the floor leaders of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan to count backwards 60 days during that party's final years in power.

With the budget bill set to become law today thanks to the 30 day rule written into Article 60 of the Constitution (seemingly the only article of the Constitution that is worth a damn), the opposition-dominated House of Councillors, ever ready to prove itself more than just a place to take a good nap, roused itself yesterday to vote the budget down. This triggered the rigmarole of the formation of a joint committee of both Houses which, amazingly, after long minutes of hard bargaining, found itself in an irreconcilable deadlock on the bill, meaning that the budget bill automatically became law.

On the surface, the 2012 budget is smaller than the 2011 budget, the first year-on-year nominal drop in six years. Add on all the special accounting for the recovery and reconstruction efforts resulting from the triple disaster of 3/11, however, and the budget is the largest ever. (J)

Just getting the budget passed is not much to write home about. The hurdle is the budget enabling legislation (yosan kanren hoan), primarily the approval of the issuance of bonds to pay for the items in the budget. With all the attention that has been focused on the bill raising the consumption tax, which is the sexier story due to the internecine battle it has spawned inside the DPJ, the Diet fight over the enabling legislation has been ignored.

However, passage of the enabling legislation is the real make-or-break fight for the Noda government. Last year Prime Minister Kan Naoto, in a fantastic bit of legerdemain, forced the LDP and the New Komeito to vote for the enabling legislation by threatening that if they did not, he would not resign as prime minister*. Prime Minister Noda, who has no intention of resigning, will have to find his own lever for prying a "Yes" vote from out of the hands of the LDP and the New Komeito.

One of the strategies proposed is keeping the Diet in extended session until the opposition parties just give up. I am not sure how the incentives are supposed to work here, unless the plan is to freak out Tanigaki Sadakazu over his trying to win reelection as LDP President whilst leading his party in a do nothing strike in the Diet, obstreperous behavior that will earn the LDP a serious lashing by the mainstream press (all except by the Nippon Terebi network, which has proven to be even more pro-LDP than its owner the Yomiuri Shimbun). The Diet session is going to be extended anyway due to the number of controversial bills the government has submitted for Diet approval (J). In terms of atmospherics, it will be difficult to disentangle which part of the extension is being carried out in order to complete Diet business and which is meant to drive the opposition parties nuts.

Working out a quid pro quo between the ruling coalition** and the opposition parties would be an option, if this blessed land's political classes could consider Houses of the Diet being controlled by different parties a natural state of affairs. However, the political classes are united in considering such a division unnatural, calling it a "twisted Diet" (nejire kokkai). The quid that the opposition parties want the ruling coalition to pro quo is a dissolution of the Diet in return for a yes vote on the enabling legislation and the bill raising the consumption tax. Since the DPJ is neither suicidal (assuming recent poll numbers are correct, the party would be demolished were elections held this summer) nor unaware that the current Diet district seat apportionment system is unconstitutional, the LDP and the New Komeito are making offers that the DPJ can do nothing but refuse.

So the stage is set for a lengthy stalemate.

Whatever the supercomputers of the Japan Meteorological Agency may be predicting, it is going to be a hot, hot summer.

-------------------------

* The essay is "Kan Won" in Reconstructing 3/11: Earthquake, tsunami and nuclear meltdown - how Japan's future depends on its understanding of the 2011 triple disaster available from Amazon.com. (Link)

** Yesterday, Shimoji Mikio, the erstwhile secretary-general of the possibly still extant People's New Party ostensibly fired his superior, Kamei Shizuka, replacing him with Financial Services Minister Jimi Shozaburo (J). Kamei, as one can imagine, does not accept his being fired by his subordinate. At present we seem to have two PNPs: one composed of Kamei and his distant relative, the other of the six MPs who say that the PNP has not withdrawn from the ruling coalition.


Later - Critical minds think in parallel: today's Tokyo Shimbun has a lead editorial on the above subject. (J)

The Tokyo Shimbun's editors seem to be of the opinion that it is worthwhile to remind the legislators that ultimately it is the citizens who will be deciding their political futures. Somehow this reality, of which the legislators have heretofore been seemingly been ignorant, will entice them into turning away from their petty, immediate obsessions and instead stir them to provide leadership for the country.

While the editors are at it, they might as well wish for ponies for everyone as well.

You Wore Our Expectations Like An Armored Suit

PLEASE WAIT LOADING ,,,,,,,,,

I was brain-dead
Locked out
Numb
Not up to speed...

- REM, "What's The Frequency Kenneth?" (1994)

A week ago I took The Economist to task for publishing an article of questionable merit.

It was with some trepidation, therefore, that I two days ago clicked on a Banyan essay entitled:

"Japan a year later: The view from the north"

However, I was amazed, engrossed, enthralled. The writing was clear, concise, yet evocative. The examples were apt; the arguments balanced; the conclusions firmly rooted in fact.

"Well, now," I thought, "Perhaps I was a little hasty and haughty. It seems everything is going to be all right."

Then I checked back at the beginning of the essay -- and my heart went into a steep dive.

"by K. N. C." the byline said.

"Oh no. It's Kenneth!" I wailed.

The one Japan lost to London.

Can't blame The Economist. Where one wants an employee with a talent for rendering complex concepts into succinct sentences, a head for figures and a work ethic "asiduous" fails to capture is back home at the mothership.

Damn this blessed land will miss him.

Back Again, With The Same Message

PLEASE WAIT LOADING ,,,,,,,,, This morning's The Tokyo Diplomat has a very subtle and clever analysis of the People's New Party's next moves, if there are to be any -- and a smart look at the current status of the consumption tax debate within the Democratic Party of Japan.

Of course, one cannot find out what I am talking about without a subscription.

Out the goodness of his heart, Michael Penn, the editor of The Tokyo Diplomat, has made available the counterfactual essay I was praising the other day.

It can be read here.

Just do not count on goodness to keep the goodies coming.

OK, So Maybe We Are Wrong

PLEASE WAIT LOADING ,,,,,,,,, Let us assume that Ozawa Ichiro is right, that the public wants the Democratic Party of Japan to fulfill its campaign promises of 2009 -- and that unless the DPJ returns to the true path (that, we shall not forget, Ozawa authored) by the time the next elections come around, the party.

Or, let us assume that Tanigaki Sadakazu, Ishihara Nobuteru and Oshima Tadamori are right, that the nation is sick to death of the bumbling and stumbling of the DPJ, particularly its inability to come to internal agreement on the government's major policy plank, the revitalization of the social welfare compact through a rise in the consumption tax.

Or, let us assume that the league of anonymous analysts are right, that the government is incapable of making the significant changes Japan needs to invigorate itself, meaning that Noda Yoshihiko is heading downhill and out the door the same way his last five predecessors have.

Then why in the dickens are the support levels of this Cabinet rising at this time? The Kyodo News poll of this morning finds support for the Cabinet rising to 32% from 29% the month before. This finding echoes the Jiji Press finding of cabinet support at 27%, a rise of 3 points from a month earlier (J) and NHK's finding of cabinet support at 33%, up 2 points from a month earlier (link expired). A week ago, the Yomiuri Shimbun found cabinet support at 35%, 5 points up from a month earlier (J). A week before that Nippon Television found a similar 5 point rise in public support for the cabinet (link expired).

Now these moves, while in sync with one another, may not represent an updraft for the Noda government. For all we know, they may represent a firming of confidence in government in general in response to the upwelling of feelings of national unity over the 3/11 anniversary. The politics-news-entertainment complex may have been pulling its punches pre-anniversary, giving the government a breather from the usual battering it faces, allowing the electorate to have a brighter view of the present.

Still, if the Noda government were really messing up, or the country on the way to a political train wreck, one would expect at least some polls to show declines in cabinet support.

Obviously, that is not happening.

Indeed, even more reassuring the PM and his government should be the fall in the percentage those holding negative views of the Cabinet: down 5 points in the Kyodo poll, down 3 points in the Jiji Press poll, down 5 points in the Yomiuri poll.

On the all-important question of which party the electorate will vote for in the bloc proportional vote (noting, of course, that a national survey does not reflect the strength of a particular party's appeal in specific blocs) the prime minister's party still trails the Liberal Democratic Party. The Kyodo poll finds the split to be 20% for the DPJ versus 23% for the LDP: the Yomiuri poll finds find the split to be 17% versus 21% (J).

For both parties, the real pain will be in the Kinki bloc, where the Yomiuri poll found that the top vote getter would be Hashimoto Toru's Ishin no kai receving 24% of the committed vote, with the LDP second at 18% and the DPJ third at 10%. (J)

The Ishin no kai's participation in the next House of Representatives election, even while not generating direct support of greater than a quarter of the voters in its home region, is still popular overall. In the Yomiuri poll, 58% of the electorate has positive expectations over the Ishin no kai's participation in national politics. In a poll the Mainichi Shimbun conducted in the first week of March, 61% of the electorate had favorable views of Ishin no kai participation in national politics (J).

Today's Kyodo polls frames the question of the Ishin no kai's rise and the possible formation of a "true conservative" party under the command of some combination of Ishihara Shintaro, Hiranuma Takeo and Kamei Shizuka in a different way: if the government could be rearranged according to your wishes, what would be its constituent parts?

A government with the DPJ at its heart 8%
A government with the LDP at its heart 13%
A grand coalition government of the DPJ and the LDP 23%
A new structure based on a realignment of the political world 38%
Other 4%
No opinion 12%

(due to rounding, the above does not add up to 100%)

A grand coalition, which the press has been talking up ad nauseum over the weekend after Deputy Prime Minister and designated go-between with the opposition parties Okada Katsuya purportedly talked about a grand DPJ-LDP coalition over several bills --- an offer Okada denies making, not that he might not be making it at some future time, mind you (J) does not set the public's heart a-flutter. The large number of persons wishing for a whole new political world, together with the miserably low numbers for a future DPJ-centered government may light a fire under the tails of some in the DPJ to accept the Noda government's already significant openness to the opinions of the opposition, particularly the New Komeito but the LDP as well (the other opposition parties might just as well not exist).

As to when the electorate next wants a shot at choosing its representatives, those desiring to have an election next year outnumber those wanting an election this year 66% to 27%, with the plurality (44%) wanting the current House of Representatives to serve out their full terms, again according to Kyodo News.

So we are on course for a double (House of Representatives - House of Councillors) election next year in mid-summer -- which is good because the Diet has yet to tackle the black hole in the nation's voting systems, the methods of electing the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors both being unconstitutional.

Dogma, Meet Karma

PLEASE WAIT LOADING ,,,,,,,,, I am not known as a vicious human being...though Tanigaki Sadakazu may take exception to that assertion.

I have, however, enjoyed almost too much the titanic implosion of Yamamoto Masahiro on the National Bureau of Asian Research's Japan-U.S. Discussion Forum. His self-appointed Sisyphean task is to perpetuate, with increasing shrillness and decreasing tolerance, the now increasingly untenable myth of Prime Minister Kan Naoto's behaving in anything other than a "heroic" manner (J) during the Fukushima Dai'ichi crisis.

NBR is considered a moderately center-right organization. Its list-serve is hardly a sump of leftist skulduggery. Avowed leftist Ronald Dore indeed complains that his most provocative thought pieces are constantly being rejected by the list moderator.

However, if you come aboard with an uncritical recitation of the accounts of last year printed in the Sankei Shimbun or, when you are feeling particularly magnanimous and collegiate, the Yomiuri Shimbun, you are going to get your behind fried. When you go further and claim that your view comes from having read Japanese-language sources rather than reading English-language ones, on a list serve of Japan experts, you are going to get your oshiri handed to you. If you then deliver a farewell address, vowing to drop the subject as others are ganging up on you, then come back with a list of demands on how the debate should be conducted on what is already a moderated forum, well...

Yamamoto Masahiro does not identify himself as being associated with any institution. There are a host of Yamamoto Masahiros on the Web. I would suspect, however, that the Yamamoto Masahiro in question is not the Tokyo University mathematician but indeed the author of Nanking: Anatomy of an Atrocity. The review of the book in the American Historical Review states that Yamamoto is "a self-described 'centrist-revisionist'."

This is an interesting compound noun. It seems to mean, "Yes, we killed, mutilated and raped large numbers of persons in absolutely horrible ways -- but not as many as you think!" with what appears after the "but" as the "revisionist" part of the phrase.

"Centrist-revisionist" in an absolute sense seems to mean cherry-picking the written record for evidence confirming one's prejudices and rejecting the documentation and reasoning of others as biased and politically-tainted.

The fun begins on March 5, in an over-the-top post by Gregory Clark, a character in his own right. Just start on the main list then pop back and forth to follow the discussion.

As I said, I am enjoying the results way too much.

Two Earthquakes, One National Broadcaster

PLEASE WAIT LOADING ,,,,,,,,, Two fairly large earthquakes struck Japan's eastern coast last night, a 6.8 temblor at 6:09 far off the coast of Hokkaido and a 6.1 temblor near to shore at 9:05. The earlier one released the greater energy (seven times as much, the Richter scale being logarithmic - correct me if I am wrong) but the latter one was the one causing damage and injuries. The latter one shook the bewillickers out of Tokyo, guaranteeing it would get better press. It even seems to have scared a 95 year-old woman to death, leading to an official count of one fatality.

The timing of the two quakes could not have been more apt for NHK. They gave the national broadcaster a chance to try out its new, hysterical style of delivering earthquakes and tsunami warnings during what are normally news time slots.

Whereas in the past bulletins on tsunami risks were delivered in a flat, informative tone and were checked first with the Japan Meteorological Agency, the new, post-3/11 mode of operation is to, frankly speaking, go nuts as soon as possible, warning viewers in staccato, barking tones to be prepared to run to higher ground even before the JMA has made any predictions.

The new style, which NHK previewed only last week as a part of its pre-3/11 build up is in answer to criticism of the broadcast community for failing to instill sufficient panic in the residents of the Tohoku last year, and in particular for following in lockstep the predictions of the JMA as to the size of the incoming waves. The initial JMA predictions were for a 3 meter wave, then a 6 meter, then finally a greater than 10 meter wave for many parts of the Tohoku (the highest crest was an astonishing 39.7 meters at Miyako City - J).

It is thought that the initial, more conservative warnings misled some early evacuees to seek shelter at lower elevations, resulting in them being swept away when the very much higher surge arrived. In at least three instances, large groups gathered on a raised area or in a tsunami shelter that ended up being far too low, one of which is the now iconic Minami Sanriku Disaster Center.

Whether delivering disaster warning messages in a voice that it both louder and filled with more tension will save lives is a question. Certainly last night, when the tsunami from the first earthquake rolled in at a less-than-astonishing 10 centimeters in height, the new urgent warnings seemed somewhat silly. Then again, with the aging of the population, startling semi-somnolent viewers and listeners may be just what is necessary to get folks off their aging keisters and way up on higher ground.

3/11 - A Selective Online Bibliography

PLEASE WAIT LOADING ,,,,,,,,, I will not lie. I have not read through, watched or listened to all of the below. However, I will offer a few comments on what I have checked out:

- The Frontline documentary is required viewing for those who want to get a sense of just how tense the situation was at the Fukushima Dai’ichi plant.

- The Economist review “The death of trust” is the most succinct and readable account of the current state of Japan’s political atmosphere.

- The Fred Hiatt op-ed is fatuous. I include it because I mentioned the Washington appearance of the haiku poet in a previous post. From the quote, she has drawn just about the worst lesson one could draw from the disaster. The irony is completely lost on her: one has to have access to a free air ticket to Washington and likely be put up at a fine hotel in order to deliver a message to a well-heeled audience that post-3/11 Japanese have to learn to live more simply.

- Fackler is himself.

- The Kuhn audio starts off in the direction indicated in the title but ends up nowhere.

- The Jayasuriya and Yamashita piece promotes a false history of the Kan cabinet. The cabinet’s popularity did not fall post 3/11 because of mismanagement of the disaster. It fell because of uncritical media reporting of rumors of spread by unknown forces, most likely TEPCO and members of the bureaucracy, which opposition politicians then made Exhibit A in parliamentary interpellations.

- The SSJ Forum (free registry required) and the WSJ’s Japan Real Time blog contain too many excellent posts on the triple disaster to list.

- Dick Samuels gives away too much for free.

- Sheila Smith is everywhere, which is only appropriate.


*
Aldrich, Daniel P.
Fukushima One Year Later: An Interview with Daniel P. Aldrich

*
Aldrich, Daniel P.
Social Networks and Japan’s 3/11 Disaster

*
Aldrich, Daniel P.
Civil society rising

*
Anderson, Kent et al
Nikkei Weekly special online edition

*
Auslin, Michael
After earthquake, lessons for Japan and the world

*
Auslin, Michael et al
AEI Hosts Conference Around Anniversary of Japan Disasters (video)

*
Bader, Jeffrey A.
Inside the White House During Fukushima: Managing Multiple Crises

*
Fackler, Martin
Nuclear Disaster in Japan Was Avoidable, Critics Contend

*
Fackler, Martin
Japan's Nuclear Energy Industry Nears Shutdown, at Least for Now

*
Frontline
Inside Japan’s Nuclear Meltdown (video)

*
Funabashi, Yo'ichi and Kay Kitazawa
Fukushima in review: A complex disaster, a disastrous response

*
Green, Michael J.
Post–March 11: Japan's Political and Economic Landscape Now and Ahead: An interview with Michael J. Green

*
Green, Michael J. et al
Nikkei Weekly special online edition

*
Hiatt, Fred
A year after the disaster of 3/11, Japan looks inward

*
Ishii, Sumie
Relief Efforts in Japan One Year Later: Reflections and Lessons Learned: An Interview with Sumie Ishii

*
The Economist
The death of trust

*
The Economist
Power politics

*
Fukuda, Nobuo
Japan's Nuclear Cabal

*
Hayashi, Yuka et al
An Altered Japan Marks a Year After Quake

(See also http://blogs.wsj.com/japanrealtime/ for numerous other articles by many different authors)

*
Kan, Naoto
Former Japanese PM Naoto Kan on the Fukushima Disaster: A Changing View of Nuclear Power

*
Kitazawa, Kay and Yo'ichi Funabashi
Fukushima in review: A complex disaster, a disastrous response

*
Kuhn, Anthony
Rethinking, Not Just Rebuilding, Japan's Northeast (audio)

*
Jayasuriya, Sisira and Nobuaki Yamashita
Japan's 3/11 disaster: one year on

*
Masset, Christian et al
Nikkei Weekly special online edition

*
Matsumura, Masahiro
Japan's revenge of the mandarins

*
MIT Japan 3.11 Initiative
MIT Japan 3.11 Initiative receives grant

*
O'Brian, Miles
Near Fukushima, a Big 'Guessing Game' Over Long-Term Risks (video)

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O'Brian, Miles
In Japan, Nuclear Cleanup May Be Mission: Impossible (video)

*
Samuels, Richard J.
Policy Change in a Post-Crisis Japan: An Interview with Richard J. Samuels

*
Scalise, Paul
ANS Committee Report on Fukushima

(See also various posts on the SSJ Forum at http://ssj.iss.u-tokyo.ac.jp/)

*
Singer, Peter
When Prevention is Better Than Relief

*
Smith, Sheila
Japan's political aftershocks

*
Smith, Sheila
Japan's Day of Remembrance

*
Smith, Sheila et al
Nikkei Weekly special online edition

*
Smith, Sheila et al
AEI Hosts Conference Around Anniversary of Japan Disasters (video)

*
Tabuchi, Hiroko
An Anniversary of 'Heartbreaking Grief' in Japan

*
Tabuchi, Hiroko
Effects of Japan's Disaster Are Still Unfolding

*
Tabuchi, Hiroko
Japan Finds Story of Hope in Undertaker Who Offered Calm Amid Disaster

*
Takenaka, Heizo
Will the Sun Still Rise?

*
Yamashita, Nobuaki and Sisira Jayasuriya
Japan's 3/11 disaster: one year on


Suggestions of other URLs are much appreciated. Also reports of any broken links.

And for a low, low price you can get Reconstructing 311, with yours truly and a cast of rather better characters.

The Poetry of the Everyday – Senryu of the Week of March 4

PLEASE WAIT LOADING ,,,,,,,,, Just one, this week.

"Oh, intercourse the penguin!"

ペンギンが教えてくれた想定外
Pengin ga
Oshiete kureta
Soteigai

It is a penguin
That teaches us the meaning of
Inconceivable

Tokyo’s very lovely public aquarium in Kasai Rinkai, the Tokyo Sea Life Park has, or had, a large outdoor colony of 153 Humboldt penguins in an outdoor display. However, on the 3rd of this month came reports and even photographic images of a penguin swimming in Tokyo Bay near the mouth of the Edogawa. It was at this point that the aquarium discovered that one of its yearling Humboldt penguins was not in the pen.

Now this would not be such surprising news, given that the aquarium has had penguin breakouts before. However, what made the story notable was that not only had the escapee managed to make it to the water (earlier breakouts had led to penguins wandering the halls and patio areas) but it had somehow breached the extra layer of security the aquarium had installed after the earlier breakouts.

A fully grown Humboldt penguin is about 60 centimeters tall. The rock wall about the pen is about 120 centimeters high at its lowest point. So initially, a not particularly physically fit penguin had to jump and scramble up a rough surface at least twice its height.

The next layer of security is what is a presumably unclimbable smooth fence, again 120 centimeters tall at its lowest point. The penguin did not have to try to jump this fence, however. Due to an installation lapse there is, a one point, a space along the bottom of the fence where a penguin could, if it flattened itself, squeeze under – which is what aquarium keepers assume it did.

However, once past the low fence there was a higher, two-meter fence on the aquarium’s outer perimeter, with its panels buried into the ground – except, understandably, where the fence had a gate in it for exit and entry – where, as it turns out, in order for the door to swing freely, there is a space at the bottom, where a penguin could, if it flattened itself, squeeze under – at which point a penguin would be on the Kaisai Rinkai shore.

The aquarium has been on the receiving end of criticism for underestimating the risks of a breakout, given previous breakouts and the strength of young penguins.

The kicker expression in this senryu is the final word soteigai. At six syllabic units it violates the 5 – 7 – 5 pattern and thus indicates that the poem is not about the penguin at all but the Fukushima Dai'ichi nuclear power plant.

Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) and the government of Prime Minister Kan Naoto, in their explanations of why the earthquake and tsunami that struck the Fukushima Dai'ichi nuclear power station on March 11, 2011 resulted in a crippling of the reactors and cooling ponds, constantly attributed the failures of back up systems and preventative measures to the plant's being subjected to inconceivable (soteigai) conditions. The metronomic repetition of this word ticked off a lot of folks, particularly the late Nishioka Takeo, the president of the House of Councillors. He publicly warned the Kan government to cease its overuse of the word. (J)

So a simple penguin, in its thwarting of a main barrier and then two layers of backup, teaches us about thinking the unthinkable – something TEPCO and the government nuclear regulators, despite warnings as to Fukushima Dai'ichi's vulnerabilities, failed to do.

(For the record, the senryu is the work of one Haraguchi Kei'ichiro, a resident of Asaka City, Saitama Prefecture.)


Later - If you should see the penguin, the number to call is +81-(0)3-3869-5152.

It's Time

PLEASE WAIT LOADING ,,,,,,,,, Please remember.

Perhaps They Will Never Know

PLEASE WAIT LOADING ,,,,,,,,, Today is a day of remembrance, a day when a goodly part of the nation will actually take a break from its usual frenetic Sundays to stand at attention for a minute of silence at 2:46 p.m. The emperor, bless his 78 year-old soul, will take part in memorial activities, despite having had a heart bypass operation 3 weeks ago. He at least believes this a day like no other. We should all think as he does.

In the spirit of the day, I shall restrain myself from my usual fury or glee at the latest shenanigans of the nation's political classes. My mind is consumed at present with a typhoon of contempt for all but a few of the elected and the meritocratic and nepotistic elites. However, I will hold the storm's fury back for this one day.

One point, however. Many publications and broadcasts (and one famous organization, inexplicably still headed by a defrocked imperial prince) have been carping about the lack of progress in the reconstruction of the ravaged and broken areas of the Tohoku (we should not forget that the earthquake and its aftershocks wreaked havoc far from the reach of the tsunami). The failure to begin rebuilding the lost communities, whether once again in the tsunami zones or on the shaved-off tops of nearby mountains, is ascribed to the current divided Diet or, in certain quarters, the inexperienced hands of the Democratic Party of Japan-led government.

No and no and No and NO!

The elites who are charged with guiding us, or at least using our tax money wisely, are not at a loss with what to do with the Tohoku. They are at a loss with what to do with Japan -- and have been so for 20 years now. Oh some of them have a plan, the Abe Shinzo-Shimomura Kokubun-Hiranuma Takeos and their ilk, to turn the populace into authority-fearing, emperor-loving, nation-building automatons...but sorry, been there, done that and no, it does not turn out very nicely, thank you very much (note to government of the PRC: imprison your colonels now, while you still can). The Liberal Democratic Party and the followers of Ozawa Ichiro made it their common cause in the midst of the disaster's rescue and stabilization phase to drive Prime Minister Kan Naoto from office. Now they are trying to do the same to Prime Minister Noda Yoshihiko during what is still the recovery phase. If either of these opposition camps were to seize the wheel of the ship of state, however, neither would have the foggiest notion in what direction to sail the Nihon Maru.

The ship has been adrift for two decades. Every so often a steady hand has taken hold of the tiller -- Hashimoto Ryutaro, Koizumi Jun'ichiro -- but it was always to right wrongs ten years too late, when it hardly mattered anymore. The victory by the DPJ was the same -- its program of putting people's livelihoods first was not revolutionary -- it was archaic, practically an anachronism. By the time the LDP had power stripped from out of its cold, near-dead claws, the treasury was empty; the countryside depleted, dependent and despondent; the cities ugly, unkempt and angry.

So today, as the cameras sweep over the barren lots and skeletons of structures for this anniversary, before running off to cover some other epiphenomenon or catastrophe, tune out the blather about the present day political mess. The images are of Japan as it is, as it has been under the veneer of efficiency and equality and beyond Tokyo's glitz and youth and energy. The stillness and lethargy are not aberrant: they are symptomatic of a ruling class without time in their schedules for the people they are supposed to be leading.