On Hashimoto Toru's Limited Return

PLEASE WAIT LOADING ,,,,,,,,, As Okumura Jun has noted, Osaka City mayor Hashimoto Toru is tweeting on Twitter, after a 10 day period of silence following the publication of a report detailing his affair with a bar hostess from 2006 to 2008.

What prompted his breaking his silence was his attendance last Thursday of a bunraku performance, after he swore in 2009 he would never attend another one.

The upshot of this second chance for the puppet theater, for which he had cut off public financial support when he became mayor: he hated it just as much as he did in 2009.

The bunraku theater's choice of having the mayor attend a performance of The Love Suicides at Sonezaki (Sonezaki Shinju) was baffling. The story is a complete downer; the motivations of the main characters obscure; their actions nonsensical; and their deaths pointless.

Not what you want to show a man who cut his teeth in the Osaka television entertainment complex.

So he returned to tweeting in order to pontificate on the bunraku and his idea of popular culture, which evolves and thrives without government subsidy.

For five whole days.

Admittedly, there was a brief interlude where he considered an Asahi Shimbun report on his reforms of Osaka's bureaucracy. Otherwise it was all bunraku, all the time.

Finally, on August 1, Hashimoto shifted gears and started bashing one of his more usual great bugaboos: the Board of Education. He then shifted to a discussion of the powers and responsibilities of ward mayors in the city of Yokohama, a part of his own greater discussion his reform of the internal organization and responsibilities of the wards of Osaka City. Not coincidentally, on August 1, Hashimoto held a ceremony at Osaka City hall handing out the mayoralties of 21 of the 24 wards of Osaka, 16 of which were handed out to private citizens -- a step toward his grander scheme of converting Osaka from a prefecture to a metropolitan district. (J)

[An aside: one mystery has always been why, aside from Osakans having a huge chip on their shoulders regarding the Tokyo Metropolitan District, Hashimoto has been so obsessed with this conversion. One possible explanation is that transforming Osaka into a metropolitan district makes it the presumptive candidate for the proposed backup capital to Tokyo, with mirrored national goverment functions in the event Tokyo is destroyed or critically disabled by a natural or human-caused disaster.]

After the Yokohama ward mayors discussion, however, it has been nothing but more bashing of the Board of Education and the freedom the education system from control by elected officials, who represent the will of the majority [A bit of leap there, Toru-kun, given the voter turnout for mayoral elections - MTC].

From his Twitter feed, however, one would never learn that Hashimoto handed off to his protégé Osaka Governor Matsui Ichiro the honor of announcing that Hashimoto's brainchild, the Osaka Ishin no kai, will be participating in the next House of Representatives election as a formal political party (E). To expedite this process, Osaka Ishin no kai will be recruiting five sitting members the Diet to form their own Ishin no kai subsidiary, which Osaka Ishin no kai would then absorb in a reverse merger. (J)

This is huge political news, something that Hashimoto, if his ego were as gargantuan as portrayed in the media, would reserve for himself.

Unlike Ozawa Ichiro, however, who never accepted the political reality that for his reforms to succeed he had to step back and let others run them, Hashimoto acknowledged himself as too damaged by his marital problems to be the man at the microphone at the ceremony announcing the big change.

The reason for the Osaka Ishin no kai's change in course, from a political movement -- which has done extremely well, seizing the Osaka governorship, control of the Osaka prefectural assembly and the Osaka City's mayor's office -- to a full-fledged party is the same reason why Ozawa Ichiro's People's Life First Party seems on a course toward implosion: money.

There are many benefits to being a formal party, due to this blessed land's absurd electoral regulations. As a political party, Osaka Ishin no kai could legally distribute campaign literature, It would be legally empowered to broadcast political ads. With five Diet members as in its embrace, Osaka Ishin no kai would have the ability to have its candidates double listed, as district candidates and on the proportional party list.

The real benefit is, however, the ability to receive money. At present, Osaka Ishin no kai is forbidden from receiving funds from corporations and organizations. It is also, of course, ineligible for public campaign financing (J). It has been sidling up to the small- and medium-sized business owners of the Kansai region, asking them for private donations. However, the prospects of financing a national movement this way are poor. The movement has also had to jump through legal hoops, at one point establishing a non-profit organization with the sole purpose of absorbing one industrialist's gift of 100 million yen. (J)

Just do not ask Hashimoto about the details regarding all this. Oh he knows them; he just will not talk about them. He will refer you to Matsui.

So Hashimoto's back -- but in a truncated form, for the time being.

Japan's Depleted Politics

PLEASE WAIT LOADING ,,,,,,,,, This Sunday's morning talk show lineup provided a stark demonstration of the depleted state of this blessed land's politics. Following a week of significant action -- the defection of four more members of the ruling Democratic Party of Japan and the consequent formation of two new parliamentary caucuses in the Diet and even more more in the local assemblies (J - Yamanashi and J - Tochigi); the public humiliation of Ambassador to China Niwa Uichiro, the first non-bureaucrat to hold the post, over his matter-of fact assessment that a purchase of three of the Senkaku Islands by the Tokyo Metropolitan Government would likely lead to great frictions in between Japan and China (E - When will the Government of Japan get around to issuing the "It's OK talk to anyone -- ANYONE -- just not the Financial Times" directive?); the first serious hiccup in the seemingly unstoppable march of Osaka City mayor Hashimoto Toru (for those keeping score: July 21 = 0 tweets) -- the best that Nichiyo Toron, the national broadcaster NHK's flagship political debate program could come up with was a debate in between Jojima Koriki and Kishida Fumio, the Diet Affairs chairmen of the DPJ and the Liberal Democratic Party, respectively. For 22 minutes, rather than the customary hour. And with Kishida not even in the Tokyo studio but piped in from outside.

This is nearly unprecedented. Nichiyo Toron almost always has at least the policy chiefs of all the major and mini-parties of the Diet on display, if not the party secretary-generals. True, the result looks ludicrous, with the representative of the ruling DPJ and the representative of its coalition appendage the People New Party on one side facing off against six (now, with Ozawa Ichiro's new Livelihood Party, it would be seven) representatives of the main opposition parties on the other, requiring the moderator to carry out a delicate dance of traffic control in between the criticisms of the opposition and the assertions of the ruling coalition and in between the positions of the significant parties and the sad bleatings of the insignificant.

The abbreviated face-off covered only a tiny range of issues. Both men offered their party's positions on:

1) the progress of the main reform social welfare and pension bills (ittai kaikaku hoan), including the bill raising consumption tax to 10%, through the House of Councillors

2) the schedule for the holding of House of Representative elections, once the ittai kaikaku bills pass the House of Councillors, as the written agreement in between the DPJ, LDP and the New Komeito requires

3) the likelihood of the LDP cooperating with the DPJ in passing the all-important bond issuance bill necessary to implement the DPJ-drafted budget, before the money runs out of money in October (E)

4) the competing bills of the DPJ and LDP on reforming the districts and size of House of Representatives, in order that an election might be constitutional

5) the stability and legitimacy of the DPJ-led government, in light of the recent waves of defections from the DPJ

These five subjects are all linked together as in a chain: the solving of one leads to and depends upon the solving of others. As the sparse attendance at Nichiyo Toron debate indicates, these are issues the DPJ and the LDP have to work out between themselves, as no combination of either party with any of the other parties in the Diet can approve any of the necessary legislation.

The greatest hurdle is an agreement on the reform of the House of Representatives. At present, 97 districts have populations greater than 2 times the population of the smallest district, meaning that over half the votes in those 97 districts are essentially thrown away. Despite a history of deference to the executive and legislative branches, the Supreme Court has thrown down a challenge, declaring any disparity greater than 1.99 to 1 unconstitutional, putting some meat on Article 14 of the Constitution, which guarantees citizens equality under the law.

The LDP bill, known as the +0/-5 Solution, is a clever response to the Supreme Court's challenge. Rather than giving the voters in the 97 grossly underrepresented districts a greater say in the running of their government, the bill would simply abolish the five smallest districts. The disparity of between the 97 largest districts and the smallest district would then fall below the 1.99 limit.

The attraction of this bill for the LDP is obvious. It preserves almost intact the inequalities that perpetuated LDP rule for 50 years. The urban and suburban, revenue-producing districts are denigrated, while the largely rural districts, with their government contract- and regulation-protected economies, are elevated.

The competing DPJ bill has as its core the +0/-5 Solution, which is contrary to the interests of the DPJ's natural constituency, the abused urban and suburban electorate. Tacked on to the +0/-5 core, however, are a pair of amendments that at once entice and repel the New Komeito, the LDP's alliance partner.

The DPJ bill is thus not a bill at all. It is a red herring, a lie told in order to keep the LDP and the New Komeito engaged, under the illusion that a weakened DPJ is ready to cut a deal on redistricting. In return the LDP and the New Komeito, out of their present eagerness to hold an election, are expected to offer concessions on pending bills, such as the all-important bond issuance bill.

However, all the gamesmanship cannot disguise a basic reality: the DPJ and the LDP no longer have the luxury of playing ruling party versus opposition. With the recent defections of 16 House of Councillors members, the DPJ no longer has the option of teaming up with the New Komeito to pass bills through both Houses of the Diet. Only a DPJ-LDP consensus can guarantee a bill's passage.

Furthermore, as Okumura Jun has noted, barring the intrusion of a Hashimoto Toru-led national political party -- which, due to this week's revelations and Hashimoto's sudden loss of his voice, suddenly has become far less of a threat to the status quo -- there is no plausible set of election results altering the necessity of DPJ-LDP cohabitation. An election, if held today, would not prove or solve anything.

Furthermore, the LDP membership does not really want to have an election, not now. Party president Tanigaki Sadakazu has proven a disappointment, unable, since his election in 2009, to improve his party's standing with the electorate, despite the DPJ's many stumbles and bumbles. Tanigaki's term ends in September; several of his more aggressive and thoughtful colleagues are poised to replace him. Eager to force an election before his term runs out, Tanigaki advocates implacable confrontation with the DPJ. His intra-party rivals, unwilling to undermine the authority of the party presidency that they themselves covet, echo his intransigence, though with a distinct lack of enthusiasm.

Hence the current poverty of Japanese politics. While a multitude of decisions await, the direction of the country is hostage to the passage of a handful of bills. Furthermore, a faith that party identity is honed through conflict with the other side, a legacy of the LDP's long reign in power, holds the two major parties back from inescapable collaboration.

They Do Not Even Bother Hiding It Anymore

PLEASE WAIT LOADING ,,,,,,,,, On June 27, the power companies of this blessed land (pax Okinawa) held their annual shareholders' meetings.

At the Kansai Electric Power Company (KEPCO) meeting, Osaka Mayor Hashimoto Toru, speaking as the representative of the company's largest shareholder, the City of Osaka, lambasted the company for pressuring the public into accepting the restart of the Oi #3 and #4 reactors and demanded an end to the company's reliance on nuclear power (E)

At the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) meeting, Tokyo Metropolitan District Vice Governor Inose Naoki, speaking as the representative of the TMD, TEPCO's main shareholder, proposed specific cost cutting measures and urged the new management team to regain the public's trust.

If Hashimoto, who is busy establishing a political party, tearing Osaka's civil service to shreds and fathering (if not exactly raising) children at an impressive rate has time to attend KEPCO's meeting, where was TMD Governor Ishihara Shintaro? Like Hashimoto he had an open microphone, has a serious attitude problem, a gift for the cutting put-down, the nation's full attention and the unquestionable right to speak as the local utility's top shareholder.

Nevertheless he passed on the opportunity to display some serious umbrage, or conversely, go against character to offer some constructive criticism.

Say what one may about Ishihara, at least he had the sense to send to the meeting someone who cares the issues: Inose, his unelected and indispensible subordinate.

On more than one occasion I have called Inose the actual governor of the TMD. What is surprising and telling is that the major news outlets are becoming more bold in portraying Inose as such, at least in terms of imagery. (J)

The Ishihara/Inose partnership has been one of the most peculiar yet productive buddy-buddy acts in local administration. Ishihara is the proudly ignorant bombastic arch conservative writer of junk fiction, still riding on the coattails of his brother Yuji, the archetypal male lead actor of the high-growth era. Inose is the cerebral former 1960s leftist radical turned author of dense studies of the arcana of Japan's economic, bureaucratic and political failings.

Ishihara gets to do the running for office, the ribbon cuttings, the dreaming up of wild schemes (like his plan for the TMD to buy three of the Senkaku islands, a whim saved by Inose's setting up of a bank account where hyper-patriots could send their contributions to the cost of buying the islands) and the insulting of the members of the TMD assembly.

Inose gets to huddle with the bureacrats and planners, working how to provide for the present and the future of the world's richest metropolis, home to 13 million persons and 50 of the globe's 500 largest companies. That Inose never, ever has to beg for votes, think about please campaign contributors or attend single a boring opening ceremony makes his the almost perfect job.

So when one is asked how is it possible that the populace of the TMD, which is not particularly obsessed with the nationalist bugaboos that pump up Ishihara, nor thrilled about his pet megaprojects, has nevertheless elected him governor four times, it is perhaps that for at least the last three elections it has been confident that it is not really electing him the governor. Instead, the people of the TMD have been electing Ishihara the megalomanical circus manager, always dreaming up new, flashy acts, thinking outrageous thoughts out loud, whilst Inose sweats out the details in the big man's penumbra.

That Inose is either emerging from or being forced out of that penumbra begs the question of what happens when Ishihara leaves the arena. Inose has never indicated a wish to run for public office. He seems to lack the personality traits necessary to do so.

Any supporters for the creation of a position of Vice Governor for Life?


Later - Due to an HTML breakdown, the original final paragraphs of this post were somehow erased. The above text is reconstructed from memory.

A Union Is Pulled And The Government Is Better For It

PLEASE WAIT LOADING ,,,,,,,,, At a cursory glance, I have been going a bit overboard on what a bad idea it is to merge Japan's two systems of childcare (Part I and Part II). I saw the unification of the hoikuen and yochien systems as reform for reform's sake: not offering a clear solution to a problem largely restricted to Tokyo and its bedroom suburbs; certain to spawn rivalries in between the personnel of the forcibly merged systems; and encouraging decay in the regulation covering childcare facilities.

Well, the plan to merge the two systems has been dumped. It is being killed in order to win the Liberal Democratic Party's support for the legislation of the combined reforms of social security and tax systems (shakai hosho zei ittai kaikaku, or ittai kaikaku for short). Health, Labour and Welfare Minister Komiyama Yoko (glaringly the only woman in the Noda Cabinet) has stated she will not fight for the unification. (J)

Now commentators would want us to think that this retreat from the promise made in the Democratic Party of Japan's 2010 Manifesto is a demonstration of the hopeless inability of the DPJ to follow through on its promises.

There is of course, another way of looking the situation: that the sacrifice of this promise and others like it are strategic and cheap -- giving up what have upon reflection been very bad or at least unaffordable ideas (eliminating expressway tolls; the 26,000 yen-a-month child allowance system) in return for what would be difficult-to-obtain cooperation from the LDP and the New Komeito on significant reforms, many of which the LDP and the New Komeito were too cowardly to impose upon the country when they held power.

Prime Minister Noda should therefore send gift sets to former party leaders Ozawa Ichiro and Kan Naoto, thanking them for stuffing the 2009 and 2010 manifestos with so many expendable promises.

Shintaro Goes To See Toru

PLEASE WAIT LOADING ,,,,,,,,, Before Tokyo Metropolitan District Governor Ishihara Shintaro was a politician, he was a renowned author. Yesterday he showed his literary chops by managing to squeeze three lies into a three sentence response of 10 words total.

「何も話すことはない。密談。そのうち話す。」

"Nani mo hanasu koto wa nai. Mitsudan. Sono uchi hanasu."

"I have nothing to say. This was a secret meeting. I will talk about it after a certain period of time."

Lie #1: "I have nothing to say."

Oh come on, Ishihara-san, you have something to say about everything. Indeed, one of the reasons some folks despise you is you cannot stop talking about subjects in which you have not the least expertise.

Lie #2: "This was a secret meeting."

Every single news organization had its reporters camped out in front of the Prince Hotel where you had the meeting. "Secret" cannot be used to describe the environment. The only thing that was secret about it was the departure of both principals via secondary exits in a vain attempt to avoid the reporters. (J)

Lie #3: "I will talk about it after a certain period of time."

Let us assume that Lie #2 was true, that yesterday's meeting was a private, secret, clandestine one. Then why in Amaterasu's name would you be promising to reveal the contents of what was discussed at a not-so-distant future time?

Whatever one might say about Ishihara, he is a genius at concision.

The meeting in question was the first between Ishihara and Osaka City mayor and Ishin no kai leader Hashimoto Toru since Hashimoto made a splashy courtesy call on Ishihara during a visit to Tokyo last December. (J)

Just what was discussed between the non-mainstream conservative leaders of Japan's two greatest conurbations during the 1 1/2 hour working lunch is not known. Informed guesses are that Ishihara sounded out Hashimoto regarding the plan Ishihara has to form a new "true conservative" party putting up candidates for the next House of Representatives election. Since Hashimoto has opened a training school for candidates with thousands of initial students, many presumably from the areas where Ishihara would try to have his candidates running, one can guess that Hashimoto's reaction to the Ishihara plan was muted. Hashimoto's enthusiasm would be further curbed by the fact that the politicians associated with the moves toward toward forming a "true conservative" party are Ishihara, Hiranuma Takeo and Kamei Shizuka -- all three of whom are the creakiest and crankiest of political dinosaurs.

Hashimoto's advice, blunt speaker that he is, was probably, "Ishihara-san, give it up now, before you embarrass yourself."

It is hard to know whether or not to read anything in the fact that it was Ishihara, the governor of the world's richest metropolis, visiting Hashimoto, the regional mayor. Perhaps it was Ishihara just returning the favor of Hashimoto's visiting him last year at the offices of the TMD. If so, why the secrecy? Ishihara was on a visit to Kyoto but made time in his schedule for a fast trip to Osaka for the meeting.

Whatever it was the two discussed, it was too important to be handled in a mere phone call, seemingly.

Anyway, Ishihara's extracurricular activities just reinforces my point of the other day.