And Ozawa Ichiro As Moe Greene

PLEASE WAIT LOADING ,,,,,,,,, Former Democratic Party of Japan leader Ozawa Ichiro has met three times over the last two days with his erstwhile friend in the DPJ leadership Koshi'ishi Azuma, this over Ozawa leading his followers and allies in an open rebellion against the leadership's sponsorship of legislation raising the consumption tax from 5% to 10% by April 2015.

After the first two rounds of talks on Thursday, Ozawa said that if the talks end in failure, he will have to make a grave decision. After the third meeting on Friday afternoon, Ozawa promised he would make the decision one way or the other (presumably he was referring to leaving the DPJ or staying) on Monday.

In terms of the content of the Ozawa-Koshi'ishi discussions, one can say with some degree of confidence that it does not require three meetings and a weekend to deliver an ultimatum.

For that, one meeting would have been more than sufficient.

It does take three meetings and a weekend for a talking-things-over with one's minions for a very arrogant man who thought he was in an impregnable position to come to the realization that he has been made an offer he cannot refuse.

In all the discussions of Ozawa's magic numbers -- whether it is the 54 DPJ members he would have to drag along with him out of the party (lest any of his followers have second thoughts about the jump, Ozawa made sure to extort letters of resignation from his supporters, which he keeps stashed in his pocket) to reduce the DPJ to minority status in the House of Representatives; or the 43 42 he would need to lead out of the party in order to form a parliamentary caucus of 51 representatives, the minimum necessary to propose a no-confidence motion; however many billions of yen it is his followers would need to run credible campaigns in their districts, should elections be held; the percentage of the public apprecia Ozawa's departing the DPJ with his followers in tow to form a new party [15%, according to The Asahi Shimbun, 16% according to the Yomiuri Shimbun)] -- two little problems have been overlooked:

1) the Noda government has established a working, if not exactly cordial, relationship with the Liberal Democratic Party and the New Komeito, and

2) whilst the LDP/New Komeito alliance wants to replace the DPJ/rump PNP as the ruling coalition, it absolutely craves the chance to crush Ozawa once and for all.

Talented amateur player of Go that he is, Ozawa may be a little taken aback to find himself in an impossible position, neither able to cut a deal nor walk away from the table undiminished.

Everything hinges now on pride, whether Ozawa overcomes his, or sends the political world reeling again based upon his confidence in the rightness of his own vision.


Later - The original text of this post contained a number of links, all of which were lost in a software crash at midnight, Tokyo time.

Even later - I confess a certain sympathy with the view expressed by Okumura Jun over in his June 26 post over at GLOBALTALK 21: that Ozawa has lost control of his followers, leading to their redefining on their own what fanatical devotion to him should be.

Well, So Much For That Eternal Verity

PLEASE WAIT LOADING ,,,,,,,,, I once issued a definitive proclamation regarding Peter Tasker, a founding partner of Arcus Investments.

It turns out I was wrong.

In his latest opinion piece for the Financial Times, Mr. Tasker has nothing interesting to say (Link).

It seems that sometimes even the best just phone it in.

For a better look at the short-term and mid-term consequences of the consumption tax legislation, read this Bloomberg report (E). Ignore the title (titles on wire service reports are too often misleading) and concentrate on what the analysts are saying about 2013, the election year. The looming threat of a tax rise in April 2014 will likely increase consumption over 2013, stimulating overall economic growth, as companies and individuals pick up big ticket items before the 3% jump in prices. The likelihood that consumers will shell out for goods and services at current prices, staring as they are at whalloping, regressive tax rise in 2014, will likely stabilize prices, nullifying, even if only temporarily, the long-term deflationary trend. Whether the halt in deflation triggers a spike in equities investments, given the sudden crash in real returns on bonds, is a question best put to Naomi Fink, a.k.a the Smartest Person In Tokyo, of Jefferies.

I am not as sanguine as Adam Richards (E), I certainly cannot be convinced that in a world where every country's bond yields are low -- some even lower than Japan's -- and a rock hard yen that is killing exporters, that a tax rise taking a first stab at stabilizing the nation's fiscal health is a really bad idea.